Are you wondering what is happening in the Northern Virginia real estate market? Are you curious about the factors that are affecting home sales? Lack of inventory is still the #1 issue that's keep buyers on the sidelines.
What's Your #1 Concern About the Real Estate Market?
Mortgage rates are too high.
Not enough homes for sale.
War and global politics.
Job market & unemployment.
Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist said 2 days ago:
Consumer price inflation rose 3.4% in December, which is a bit higher than the 3.1% recorded in November. But the longer-term underlying trend is clear, with inflation being much calmer now compared to 2022.
The latest inflation numbers do not change the trajectory of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by at least three times this year. I think it will be 4 or 5 times.
Housing rent, an important component, is trending calmer. That is why the key core inflation, which strips out the volatile energy and food components, slid to a 3.9% annual gain, its smallest rise in nearly 3 years. The Federal Reserve cares more about the “core” inflation. Hence, it could be more aggressive in cutting interest rates later this year, especially if the rent shows further cooling in the upcoming months. The apartment construction boom is implying as such.
Home prices are not part of consumer price inflation. Housing affordability, however, will be improved if mortgage rates fall.
Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research stated on January 11, 2024, "When more buyers enter the market in the Spring, as mortgage interest rates are expected to fall, finding the right home will be hard".
I am providing a market update for three counties which include Loudoun County, VA, Frederick County, VA, and Jefferson County, WV. The information provided is based on December 2023 data from Bright MLS. If you are interested in seeing market metrics for your neighborhood or an estimate of your home's current value, I would be happy to provide this information via email. You can send me a request at sherry.santmyer@huntcountrysir.com.
Home Prices Surge Amidst Extended Days on Market, Sales Mimic December 2022
In December 2023 the Frederick County real estate market saw many changes from December 2022 and even from November 2023. The following bullet points highlight the stats:
Closed Sales were down 16.1% from December 2022 and down 17.9% since November 2023.
Average Sold Price was up 11.9% over December 2022 and up 5.6% since November 2023.
Average Days on the Market was 44 days, this is 10% longer than December 2022 & 12.8% longer than November 2023.
December 2023 Sales are looking like 2022. The last 2 years are the lowest in 5 years.
New Home Construction is EVERYWHERE!
I think Jefferson County is the best place to INVEST
In December 2023, Jefferson County's real estate market saw many changes from December 2022 and even from November 2023. The following bullet points highlight the stats:
Closed Sales were up 22% from December 2022 and up 9.1% since November 2023.
Average Sold Price was up 6.3% over the same time last year and up 6.9% since November 2023.
Average Days on the Market is 37 days, this is 36.2% shorter than December 2022 & 48% longer than November 2023.
Closed & Pending Sales are holding steady. 2019,2022 & 2023 are showing similar stats. There are a lot of new homes being built in Jefferson County, WV. I see this market continuing to grow due to affordability and proximity to Loudoun County, VA.
Loudoun County Housing Market: House Prices Rising, Average Days on Market is low & we need Inventory
In December 2023 Loudoun County's real estate market saw many changes from the previous year and even the previous month. The following bullet points highlight the stats:
Closed Sales were up 6.4% from December 2022 and down 5.7% since November 2023.
Average Sold Price was up 15.4% over the same time last year and down 4.2% since November 2023.
Average days on the market is 22 days, this is 26.7% shorter than December 2022 and 50% longer than November 2023.
Closed & Pending Sales are incredibly low! The same as December 2022 but very low compared to 2019, 2020 & 2021.
Real Estate Market Summary
The Jefferson County real estate market is white HOT. New construction in Jefferson County is helping to boost sales. Just drive down Route 340 and see how many subdivisions are slated to start this year. Jefferson County is providing homes for Loudoun County's overflow. Loudoun prices keep RISING and pushing buyers west. In my opinion, Investing in Jefferson County, WV is a GREAT idea. I also believe that West Virginia is seeing a strong second home buyer's market. Families living in the DC/MD metropolitan want a vacation home that is not more than 3 hours away. West Virginia is convenient and Wild & Wonderful! Give me a call if you would like to INVEST IN JEFFERSON COUNTY, WV!
Loudoun County has seen the lowest sales volume in December 2022 & 2023 in the last 5 years. The average sold price keeps going up. I ask myself, when will this stop? I believe buyers want to buy but inventory is still low and home values are way too high for buyers to enter the market.
Frederick County home's average sold price is up but average days on the market are longer. Frederick's sales are way down for December 20223. In my opinion, Frederick grew rapidly during COVID. However I think overflow from Loudoun has slowed due to alternative locations, like Charles Town and Winchester.
In conclusion, I think the lack of inventory is driving the market. Buyers need to BEWARE! If inflation falls, interest rates will fall. Multiple offer situations could start happening again. The time to start looking is now and be prepared with your pre-approval letter. Sellers, we still need inventory and prices are up. Jefferson County is a great place to invest & to live!
If you would like to see metrics for your local neighborhood or have an estimate of your home's current value, please contact me at sherry.santmyer@huntcountrysir.com.