Are you wondering what is happening in the Northern Virginia real estate market? Are you curious about the factors that are affecting home sales? Lack of inventory is still the #1 issue that keeps buyers on the sidelines and #2 is "When are the interest rates going to drop"?
Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist said today:
The desired inflation is 2% and today’s rise of 3.1% consumer price index (Feb. 13th) is not yet comfortable. One big source of stubbornness to further calmness is that housing shelter inflation is rising at 6%. That’s a bit of a mystery since apartment rents are no longer rising and single-family rent growth is at low single-digits. Home price is considered as an asset (like a stock price) and is not part of the inflation measurement.
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year in my view. But 3, 4, or even 5 rounds of rate cuts will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved. Mortgage rates will be bouncy week-to-week but will most likely settle towards 6% by the year-end. Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research stated today:
On this Galantine's Day, which is celebrating and empowering the women around us, let’s lift single women home buyers. Single women far outnumber single men in the home-buying market despite earning lower household incomes. They make more financial sacrifices to achieve ownership and are more likely to buy a home not just for themselves but their children and elderly relatives. Shockingly, it has only been 50 years since women were legally protected to purchase without a male co-signer. Link in comments for a full blog on the topic. Video from Good Morning America with Elizabeth Schulze.
I am providing a market update for three counties which include Loudoun County, VA, Frederick County, VA, and Jefferson County, WV. The information provided is based on January 2024 data from Bright MLS. If you are interested in seeing market metrics for your neighborhood or an estimate of your home's current value, I would be happy to provide this information via email. You can send me a request at sherry.santmyer@huntcountrysir.com.
Home Prices Steady Amidst Extended Days on Market
In January 2024 the Frederick County real estate market saw many changes from January 2023 and even from December 2023. The following bullet points highlight the stats:
Closed Sales were up 37.7% from January 2023 and up 7.7% since December 2023.
Average Sold Price was up 4% over January 2023 and down 11.7% since December 2023.
Average Days on the Market was 50 days, which is 35.1% longer than January 2023 & 13.6% longer than December 2023.
January 2024 Sales are looking better than January 2023 sales. The last 2 years are the lowest in 5 years.
Is Jefferson County becoming a little Loudoun County?
ROI in Jefferson County looks amazing!
In January 2024, Jefferson County's real estate market saw many changes from January 2023 and even from December 2023. The following bullet points highlight the stats:
Closed Sales were up 10.9% from January 2023 and down 15.3% since December 2023.
Average Sold Price was up 9.8% over the same time last year and up 7.5% since December 2023.
Average Days on the Market is 45 days, this is 23.7% shorter than January 2023 & 21.6% shorter than December 2023.
Closed & Pending Sales are holding steady. The last 5 years have shown similar stats. Many new homes are being built in Jefferson County, WV. I see this market continuing to grow due to affordability and proximity to Loudoun County, VA.
Loudoun County Housing Market: House Prices Rising, Average Days on Market is Low & We Need Inventory!
In January 2024 Loudoun County's real estate market saw many changes from the previous year and even the previous month. The following bullet points highlight the stats:
Closed Sales were up 15.6% from January 2023 and down 5.7% since December 2023.
Average Sold Price was up 1.1% over the same time last year and down 3.4% since December 2023.
The average days on the market are 25 days, this is 32.4% longer than January 2023 and 13.6% shorter than December 2023.
Closed & Pending Sales are meager! A little more than January 2023 but all in all, low!
Real Estate Market Summary
The Jefferson County real estate market is holding its own. New construction in Jefferson County is helping to boost sales. 4,700 new homes have been approved. Is Jefferson County becoming a little Loudoun County? Loudoun prices keep RISING and pushing buyers west. In my opinion, Investing in Jefferson County, WV is a GREAT idea. I also believe that West Virginia is seeing a strong second home buyer's market. Families living in the DC/MD metropolitan want a vacation home that is not more than 3 hours away. West Virginia is convenient and Wild & Wonderful! Give me a call if you would like to INVEST IN JEFFERSON COUNTY, WV!
Loudoun County has seen the lowest sales volume in January. It mimics January 2023. The average sold price went up 1.1% over January 2023 but prices decreased since last month. I ask myself, Is Loudoun County's home values flattening out? I believe buyers want to buy but inventory is still low and home values are way too high for buyers with the current interest rate to enter the market.
Frederick County home's average sold price is up and average days on the market are longer- 50 days. Frederick's sales are down for January 2024. In my opinion, Frederick County prices need to even out. Jefferson County, WV is getting the overflow from Loudoun.
In conclusion, I think the lack of inventory & higher interest rates are driving the market. I have seen a lot of cash buyers investing their money in real estate. If inflation falls, interest rates will fall. We need interest rates to fall to help first-time home buyers afford a home so they have a choice to buy or rent. Right now renting outweighs purchasing, in some cases. The time to start looking is now and be prepared with your pre-approval letter. Sellers, we still need inventory and your home price is flattening. I believe the spring market is a good time to sell. Especially before the November elections!
If you would like to see metrics for your local neighborhood or have an estimate of your home's current value, please contact me at sherry.santmyer@huntcountrysir.com.